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Spain are the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, ahead of France, Argentina and Brazil, according to a Goldman Sachs model published on Friday that uses teams’ historical performance and ranking data.
The model gives Spain a 26% chance of lifting the trophy at the tournament, which will be held in the United States, Mexico and Canada from 11 June to 19 July.
France were next on 19%, followed by reigning champions Argentina on 14%, Brazil on 8% and England on 5%, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
The bank said its forecast is based mainly on teams’ Elo ratings, a performance-ranking system originally devised for chess and adapted for football, along with additional factors including attacking talent, recent momentum, mentality and geography.
“Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition,” Goldman Sachs said.
Argentina’s chances were reduced by what the bank called a “winner’s slump” effect, or the tendency of defending champions to underperform at the following World Cup.
France’s odds were hurt by the likelihood of facing top-ranked Spain in the semi-finals, while England was marked down because of what Goldman described as a history of tournament underperformance, geographical headwinds and a slightly unfavorable draw.
Goldman said its projections were broadly in line with bookmakers’ odds, though it assigned England a lower probability of winning than betting markets did.
The bank said its model simulates match outcomes using nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches since 1978 and would be updated after each day of play during the tournament.
