Exports between opportunity and uncertainty

A new situation has emerged in global trade after the Supreme Court of the United States declared President Donald Trump’s previously announced retaliatory tariffs illegal.

Although the court ruling effectively nullified the earlier tariffs, Trump later issued a new executive order reimposing a 15 percent import tariff on all countries. As a result, the overall situation remains unclear, according to stakeholders.

Analysts say this development has created both uncertainty and potential opportunities for Bangladesh. Since the United States is Bangladesh’s largest single export market, the impact of the new tariff structure is being closely monitored. However, analysts also see room for negotiation.

Economic analyst Mashrur Riaz said the earlier retaliatory tariffs were effectively canceled following the court ruling. But the fresh 15 percent tariff imposed through an executive order has kept the situation uncertain. Instead of withdrawing entirely from the existing bilateral trade framework with the United States, he suggested Bangladesh should renegotiate areas where its interests were harmed.

Considering geopolitical realities, he added, it would not be easy for Bangladesh to disengage from trade relations with a powerful country like the US. Therefore, taking advantage of the current situation to secure favorable terms through strategic negotiations would be the most effective approach.

Call for Reviewing Agreements

Former president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), Fazlul Haque, said the court ruling has created an opportunity to reassess existing trade agreements between Bangladesh and the United States. If certain trade or tariff arrangements are automatically nullified due to the ruling, that could benefit Bangladesh, he noted.

If they are not automatically canceled, policymakers should take the initiative to review them, as existing arrangements were not entirely favorable for Bangladesh. He believes the new US tariff situation offers Bangladesh an opportunity to secure comparatively better terms, provided swift diplomatic and commercial efforts are undertaken.

President of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, said Bangladeshi exporters have returned to a relatively advantageous position. Since tariffs are being imposed at similar rates globally, the gap between Bangladesh and competing countries has somewhat narrowed.

However, he cautioned that uncertainty among US importers has increased due to frequent changes in tariff structures. Importers remain unsure about the final tariff burden, leading to caution in placing new orders and setting prices. If this uncertainty persists, US buyers may prefer short-term contracts, affecting exporters’ production planning. Nevertheless, he expressed hope that once stability returns, Bangladesh will strengthen its competitive position.

Uncertainty Over Agreements

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said that following the US court ruling, the retaliatory tariff structure has effectively placed all countries in the same position. However, the status of bilateral trade agreements remains unclear and may take until at least Tuesday to fully understand.

He noted that Bangladesh currently enjoys some important benefits, particularly zero-duty access for products manufactured using imported US cotton. Efforts undertaken to reduce the trade gap with the US may also continue to yield positive outcomes. Once the overall situation becomes clearer, Bangladesh will be better able to assess potential advantages and challenges.

Previously, President Trump had imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly all countries, triggering a global trade crisis. Many countries attempted to negotiate reductions through bilateral talks. Bangladesh also signed a trade agreement, offering certain concessions. Ultimately, an additional 20 percent US tariff remained in place on top of previous duties. After further negotiations, Bangladesh managed to reduce the tariff by 1 percent, bringing the total to 34.1 percent. However, zero-duty access was promised for goods manufactured with US cotton, while products not using US cotton remained subject to the 34.1 percent rate.

The new Supreme Court decision has created both opportunities and uncertainties. Entrepreneurs believe the real implications for Bangladesh will become clear once the situation stabilizes.

BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said the agreement signed during the interim government has now fallen into uncertainty. He claimed the US had already secured several benefits from Bangladesh, while Bangladesh has yet to gain much in return. If the agreement is not canceled or reviewed, Bangladesh could suffer losses. He urged the new government to reopen discussions with US authorities to clarify the issues.

Future of $133 Billion Collected in Tariffs

Although retaliatory tariffs were annulled, the Trump administration has already collected $133 billion in import duties. Many companies passed these costs on to consumers. While there have been informal promises of refunds, neither the administration nor the Supreme Court has detailed any refund process.

Analysts say the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and agreements presents both risks and strategic opportunities for Bangladesh. Exporters need to take cautious and well-planned steps.

What Should Bangladesh Do?

The United States remains a key trading partner for Bangladesh, despite a trade imbalance—Bangladesh exports over $8 billion worth of goods to the US while importing less. The Trump administration had cited this trade gap as a major reason for imposing retaliatory tariffs.

Under a bilateral agreement, Bangladesh had agreed to increase imports from the US, including aircraft and agricultural products. However, the agreement signed shortly before the interim government stepped down failed to satisfy many economists and business leaders, who believe the US benefited more. In many areas, the agreement reportedly imposed limitations on what Bangladesh could and could not do.

In this evolving scenario, Bangladesh faces both significant risks and potential opportunities in its export sector.