More than 39 million deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections estimated between now and 2050, suggests first global analysis

More than 39 million deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections could occur by 2050, according to the first global analysis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) trends. The study, conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, reveals that over one million people died annually from AMR between 1990 and 2021. It projects that by 2050, annual deaths directly from AMR could rise by almost 70%, to 1.91 million, with AMR-related deaths increasing by 75%.

The study shows a significant shift in AMR death patterns. AMR deaths among children under five declined by 50% from 1990 to 2021, largely due to improvements in infection prevention and vaccination. However, deaths in people aged 70 and older surged by more than 80% during the same period, a trend likely to continue as populations age. Future projections indicate that by 2050, deaths among people over 70 will more than double, while deaths among children under five will continue to decline.

The findings emphasize the urgent need for enhanced infection prevention, appropriate antibiotic use, and research into new treatments. Access to healthcare and antibiotics could save up to 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050, particularly in regions like South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia.

AMR remains a major global health threat, with increasing resistance to essential antibiotics. For example, deaths due to methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) more than doubled between 1990 and 2021, while resistance to carbapenems, critical drugs for treating infections, also rose sharply.

The authors call for urgent action, including new strategies to combat severe infections through vaccination, development of new drugs, and improved healthcare access. Without these measures, AMR could contribute to 8 million deaths annually by 2050. Addressing AMR effectively requires global collaboration and investment in infrastructure to strengthen data collection and improve the accuracy of future forecasts.