Defence deals and palace invites: UK and EU haggle before first summit since Brexit

“Don’t expect miracles. But do know – everyone wants this to work.”

On Monday in London the EU and UK hold their first bilateral summit since Brexit. Symbolically, this is a big moment.

Officials and analysts I speak to, on and off the record, like the individual I just quoted, are quick to point out difficulties that exist between the two sides.

But all acknowledge the bilateral bitterness provoked by Brexit is no more. It’s been eviscerated by the gravity of global events.

Concerns about Russia and China, the war in Ukraine, the shock of the US under Donald Trump no longer prioritising European defence, plus a growing sense of voter insecurity is propelling the two powers to work closer together.

“Failure to do so, in the current international context, would not be a good look,” says Anand Menon, director of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe.

Most European countries realise that, he adds: “Even the French.”

More than most EU countries, France has been playing hardball in pre-summit negotiations.

Is it a coincidence that as talks went to the wire before Monday’s summit, the UK announced that France’s president has been invited for his first state visit?

King Charles and Queen Camilla will host Emmanuel Macron and his wife at Windsor Castle in July. A UK attempt to butter up the French leader, perhaps?

“It’ll be interesting to see if they can agree common language [for a summit agreement],” says Georgina Wright, European policy expert at the Institut Montaigne.

“Everyone in the EU wants closer relations with the UK right now and France doesn’t want to be seen as the one country blocking closer UK-EU cooperation. But that does not mean that Paris is willing to give up on core interests.”

Interests like fishing rights in UK waters and bidding for EU defence contracts.

Negotiating – or to be more accurate – haggling over the “meat” of the summit will, I’m told, continue till the last moment.