Tarique Rahman and the Next Chapter of Bangladesh

 

By Advocate Shafiqul Haque:

 

From political reconciliation and economic renewal to institutional reform and a changing foreign policy, Bangladesh is seeking greater strategic space while reassessing its relationships with its neighbours and global partners.

Bangladesh has entered a new political chapter. With Tarique Rahman as prime minister, the country is facing challenges that go well beyond the contest for political power. The larger question is whether the new government can turn political change into lasting institutional reform, economic renewal and a more confident role for Bangladesh in the world.

Tarique Rahman’s political journey is inseparable from the history of his parents, Ziaur Rahman and Khaleda Zia. His father helped shape a distinctive idea of Bangladeshi nationalism and a foreign policy that sought to broaden Bangladesh’s international relationships. His mother became one of the country’s most important political figures through her long involvement in parliamentary politics and the struggle over democratic government.

But Bangladesh in 2026 is very different from the Bangladesh of their political era.

The country has a much larger economy, a young and increasingly urban population, a substantial export sector and a large global diaspora. At the same time, it faces difficult questions about employment, inflation, investment, banking, governance, education, energy and institutional confidence.

For Tarique Rahman, therefore, the challenge is not simply to carry forward a political legacy. It is to determine what that legacy means in a Bangladesh facing a very different economic and geopolitical environment.

From political confrontation to national reconciliation

One of the government’s most important challenges may be political rather than economic.

Bangladesh has spent years in an intensely adversarial political environment. Successive governments and opposition movements have often treated political competition as a struggle in which compromise can appear to be a weakness.

A sustainable democracy requires something different: competition without permanent confrontation.

I was reminded of this during a conversation I had with Khaleda Zia when I was Mayor of Tower Hamlets. She asked for my views on the forthcoming election, and I spoke frankly about the importance of making the electoral process as inclusive and credible as possible and of encouraging the major opposition forces to participate. What was initially planned as a brief meeting continued for more than an hour as we discussed the election, Bangladesh’s political future and the contribution of Bangladeshis living abroad. What stayed with me was not simply the length of the conversation, but her willingness to listen and engage with a view expressed frankly. It reinforced my belief that democratic politics requires not only competition, but also dialogue, inclusion and a willingness to listen to differing perspectives.

That principle remains relevant today.

The government has a mandate to govern, while the opposition and other political forces represent their own constituencies and political positions. Their differences are real and should remain part of legitimate democratic debate. But there may also be areas where political forces can cooperate without giving up their separate identities.

Strengthening Parliament, improving electoral institutions, reforming public administration, combating corruption, protecting citizens’ rights and addressing economic challenges are areas where national interest can provide common ground.

Such cooperation would not mean political agreement. It would simply mean recognising that some national problems are larger than any individual party.

There is an opportunity for Bangladesh to develop a political culture in which parties compete vigorously while remaining capable of working together when the country’s longer-term interests require it.

That could prove to be one of the defining tests of the new political era.

The economic challenge

The economic challenge may ultimately be the most immediate test of Tarique Rahman’s government.

Bangladesh has made substantial economic progress over the past several decades, but the foundations now need strengthening. Inflation has placed pressure on household budgets, while weaknesses in the banking sector, subdued private investment, limited government revenue and difficulties in the business environment have created additional pressures.

For ordinary people, however, economic policy is not about statistics. It is about the price of food, the availability of jobs, the cost of housing and education, the ability to start a business and the prospect of a better life for their children.

Restoring confidence will therefore be critical.

The government needs to create an environment in which domestic entrepreneurs are willing to invest and international investors see Bangladesh as a predictable and competitive destination. That requires more than incentives. It requires reliable electricity and infrastructure, efficient ports, easier access to finance, transparent regulation and a tax system broad enough to support public services without placing excessive pressure on productive businesses.

The banking sector deserves particular attention. Weak governance and bad loans can undermine confidence throughout the economy. Reform will require stronger supervision, greater accountability and a credible approach to dealing with distressed institutions. Protecting depositors and restoring confidence in the financial system should be central to that effort.

Employment is perhaps the most important economic issue of all.

Bangladesh has a large young population entering the labour market every year. Creating jobs at the necessary scale will require the economy to move beyond dependence on a relatively narrow range of export industries.

The garment sector will remain vital, but Bangladesh needs to develop pharmaceuticals, electronics, information technology, agro-processing, engineering, shipbuilding, logistics and other higher-value industries. Export diversification should go hand in hand with investment in technical education and vocational training.

There is also a broader question of productivity.

Bangladesh’s future growth cannot depend indefinitely on low-cost labour alone. The next phase will require greater use of technology, better management, stronger research capacity and a workforce equipped for higher-value production.

Government revenue is another structural challenge. A country cannot build high-quality schools, hospitals, transport networks and social protection systems without a sustainable revenue base. Improving tax administration and widening the tax base should therefore be treated as part of economic development rather than simply a fiscal exercise.

Energy security will also remain crucial. Reliable and reasonably priced energy is essential for industry, agriculture and households. A more diversified energy strategy, alongside greater attention to efficiency and renewable sources, could reduce vulnerabilities over time.

None of these reforms will produce instant results. But that is precisely why they require a long-term approach.

The objective should be to build an economy that creates jobs, attracts investment, supports entrepreneurship and gives Bangladesh greater resilience when global conditions become difficult.

Economic strength is also closely connected to national independence. A country with a productive economy, healthy financial institutions and diversified trade relationships has greater freedom to make its own choices at home and abroad.

Reforming the institutions of the state

Economic development cannot be separated from institutional quality.

Investors need predictable rules. Businesses need access to finance. Citizens need effective public services. Courts need credibility. Regulators need competence and independence.

Bangladesh does not necessarily need a larger state. It needs a more capable one.

That means strengthening institutions rather than simply changing the people who occupy them.

The same principle applies to public administration.

If government becomes more predictable, transparent and effective, the benefits will extend beyond the economy. Better institutions can also reduce political tensions by making citizens less dependent on political connections to obtain basic services or resolve disputes.

For Tarique Rahman’s government, institutional reform may therefore prove more consequential in the long run than any individual political initiative.

A changing foreign policy

Foreign policy is another area where Bangladesh appears to be entering a period of adjustment.

The government has signalled a desire to diversify its international relationships and give greater weight to national interests. Engagement with China has become particularly significant, with cooperation covering areas such as trade, investment, infrastructure and connectivity.

This has inevitably generated discussion about whether Bangladesh is moving closer to Beijing and seeking greater distance from New Delhi.

A more useful way to understand the change may be through the concept of strategic autonomy.

Bangladesh does not have to choose between China and India, or between East and West.

China can be an important economic and infrastructure partner, while the United States and Europe remain important to Bangladesh’s export economy, investment and access to technology. Japan and South Korea can contribute to industrial development, while the Gulf remains important for energy, investment, employment and remittances. Southeast Asia offers further opportunities for trade and connectivity.

The objective should be to give Bangladesh more choices, rather than simply replacing one form of dependence with another.

India: a relationship being reassessed

India will remain central to Bangladesh’s foreign policy because geography makes the relationship unavoidable.

The two countries share a long border and interconnected interests involving rivers, water, trade, energy, transport, security and regional connectivity.

At the same time, Dhaka is seeking a different balance in the relationship.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir has spoken of the need to reset Bangladesh’s relationship with India and has stressed that the relationship should be approached from the perspective of Bangladesh’s national interests. He has also indicated that Bangladesh wants a constructive relationship with its neighbour.

That distinction matters.

Bangladesh does not need to be anti-India to pursue greater strategic autonomy.

Nor does strengthening relations with China require weakening relations with India.

A mature relationship should allow Bangladesh to cooperate with India where interests converge and negotiate firmly where they do not.

Water sharing, border management, trade, energy and connectivity will continue to require sustained bilateral engagement. The challenge is to make that engagement balanced, predictable and mutually beneficial.

China and the wider world

The expansion of Bangladesh-China relations should therefore be viewed as part of a broader diversification of foreign policy.

China offers Bangladesh access to capital, infrastructure, manufacturing capacity and technology. These can be valuable as Bangladesh seeks to upgrade its industrial base.

But diversification should not become another form of dependence.

Every major project should be assessed according to its economic value, financing terms, employment potential, technology transfer and long-term contribution to Bangladesh’s productive capacity.

The same principle should apply to every international partner.

Bangladesh’s relationship with the West remains economically important. Japan and South Korea offer opportunities in advanced manufacturing and technology. The Gulf states remain critical to the country’s labour market and remittance economy. Southeast Asia can provide new markets and investment.

Bangladesh’s diplomatic strength will increasingly depend on its ability to engage all of these partners at the same time.

The Bay of Bengal opportunity

Geography can become one of Bangladesh’s greatest economic advantages.

The country sits between South Asia and Southeast Asia and has direct access to the Bay of Bengal. With the right investment, its ports, logistics networks and transport infrastructure could support a much larger role in regional trade.

Bangladesh should therefore look beyond bilateral relationships and consider the wider regional economy.

Greater engagement with ASEAN countries, stronger BIMSTEC cooperation and improved connectivity with Nepal, Bhutan and India’s northeastern states could create new opportunities for trade and investment.

The Bay of Bengal should be viewed not merely as a security space, but as an economic opportunity.

Bangladesh’s location could allow it to become a bridge between South and Southeast Asia, provided it develops the infrastructure, regulatory environment and industrial capacity necessary to take advantage of that position.

Building common ground

The political challenge is to create enough consensus around these long-term objectives.

The government and opposition have different political histories, constituencies and policy positions. Other political parties and movements have their own perspectives.

There is no need for these differences to disappear.

A functioning democracy does not require political parties to agree on everything. It requires them to accept that the country must continue to function despite disagreement.

There may therefore be value in identifying a limited number of national priorities around which cooperation is possible: economic recovery, education, employment, institutional reform, energy security, public health, infrastructure and national security.

Such cooperation should not be confused with a political alliance or ideological agreement. It is simply recognition that some problems require a national response.

If Bangladesh can develop a political environment in which competition does not prevent cooperation, the country could strengthen its democratic institutions while creating a more stable foundation for development.

What kind of Bangladesh comes next?

The ultimate test for Tarique Rahman’s government will therefore be broader than whether it succeeds in any single policy area.

Can it create an environment in which private investment returns?

Can it restore confidence in the banking system?

Can it provide meaningful employment for young people?

Can it strengthen public institutions and the rule of law?

Can it maintain political competition without allowing confrontation to paralyse the state?

Can it manage relations with India while expanding economic engagement with China and other partners?

And can Bangladesh become sufficiently economically strong that its foreign policy reflects genuine strategic choice rather than dependence?

These questions are interconnected.

A country with strong institutions and a diversified economy has greater freedom abroad. A country with a skilled population and competitive industries has more leverage in international negotiations. A politically stable democracy can build longer-term relationships with international partners.

In that sense, foreign policy begins at home.

A chance to define the next chapter

The political histories of Ziaur Rahman and Khaleda Zia inevitably form part of the context in which Tarique Rahman governs. But his opportunity is to define a chapter that belongs to his own generation.

Bangladesh today needs neither permanent political confrontation nor dependence on any external power. It needs institutions that work, an economy that creates opportunity, politics that allows disagreement without paralysis, and a foreign policy that gives the country room to pursue its own interests.

The emerging engagement with China and the reassessment of relations with India may be part of that process. But they should be understood as components of a much larger national project.

The broader test of a “Bangladesh First” approach should not be how distant Dhaka becomes from one country or how close it becomes to another. It should be whether Bangladesh becomes stronger, more prosperous, more institutionally capable and more confident in making its own decisions.

That is the larger challenge before Tarique Rahman.

It is also a challenge that extends beyond one government or one political party. The next chapter of Bangladesh will be shaped by whether its political forces can compete vigorously while still finding common ground on the foundations of national development.

The country has an opportunity to turn political change into something more enduring: stronger institutions, a more resilient economy, greater social confidence and a foreign policy based on choice rather than dependency.

For a country that has travelled so far in a relatively short time, the next step may be less about choosing sides and more about building the strength to stand firmly on its own.Chapter of Bangladesh

From political reconciliation and economic renewalto institutional reform and a changing foreign policy, Bangladesh is seeking greater strategic space while reassessing its relationships with its neighbours and global partners.

Bangladesh has entered a new political chapter. With Tarique Rahman as prime minister, the countryis facing challenges that go well beyond the contestfor political power. The larger question is whether the new government can turn political change into lasting institutional reform, economic renewal and a more confident role for Bangladesh in the world.

Tarique Rahman’s political journey is inseparablefrom the history of his parents, Ziaur Rahman andKhaleda Zia. His father helped shape a distinctive idea of Bangladeshi nationalism and a foreign policy that sought to broaden Bangladesh’s international relationships. His mother became one of thecountry’s most important political figures throughher long involvement in parliamentary politicsand the struggle over democratic government.

But Bangladesh in 2026 is very different from the Bangladesh of their political era.

The country has a much larger economy, a young and increasingly urban population, a substantial export sector and a large global diaspora. At the same time, it faces difficult questions about employment, inflation, investment, banking, governance, education, energy and institutional confidence.

For Tarique Rahman, therefore, the challengeis not simply to carry forward a political legacy. It is to determine what that legacy means in a Bangladesh facing a very different economic and geopolitical environment.

From political confrontationto national reconciliation

One of the government’s most important challenges may be political rather than economic.

Bangladesh has spent years in an intensely adversarial political environment. Successive governments and opposition movements have often treated political competition as a struggle in which compromisecan appear to be a weakness.

A sustainable democracy requires something different: competition without permanent confrontation.

I was reminded of this during a conversation I had with Khaleda Zia when I was Mayor of Tower Hamlets. She asked for my views on the forthcoming election, and I spoke frankly about the importance of making the electoral process as inclusive and credible as possible and of encouraging the major opposition forces to participate. What was initially planned as a brief meeting continued for more than an hour as we discussed the election, Bangladesh’s politicalfuture and the contribution of Bangladeshis living abroad. What stayed with me was not simply the length of the conversation, but her willingness tolisten and engage with a view expressed frankly. Itreinforced my belief that democratic politics requires not only competition, but also dialogue, inclusion and a willingness to listen to differing perspectives.

That principle remains relevant today.

The government has a mandate to govern, while the opposition and other political forces representtheir own constituencies and political positions. Their differences are real and should remain part of legitimate democratic debate. But there may also be areas where political forces can cooperate without giving up their separate identities.

Strengthening Parliament, improving electoral institutions, reforming public administration, combating corruption, protecting citizens’ rightsand addressing economic challenges are areaswhere national interest can provide common ground.

Such cooperation would not mean political agreement. It would simply mean recognising that some nationalproblems are larger than any individual party.

There is an opportunity for Bangladesh to develop apolitical culture in which parties compete vigorously while remaining capable of working together when the country’s longer-term interests require it.

That could prove to be one of the defining tests of the new political era.

The economic challenge

The economic challenge may ultimately be the most immediate test of Tarique Rahman’s government.

Bangladesh has made substantial economic progressover the past several decades, but the foundations now need strengthening. Inflation has placed pressureon household budgets, while weaknesses in the banking sector, subdued private investment, limited government revenue and difficulties in the business environment have created additional pressures.

For ordinary people, however, economic policyis not about statistics. It is about the price of food, the availability of jobs, the cost of housing and education, the ability to start a business and the prospect of a better life for their children.

Restoring confidence will therefore be critical.

The government needs to create an environment in which domestic entrepreneurs are willing to invest and international investors see Bangladesh as a predictable and competitive destination. That requires more than incentives. It requires reliable electricityand infrastructure, efficient ports, easier access to finance, transparent regulation and a tax system broad enough to support public services withoutplacing excessive pressure on productive businesses.

The banking sector deserves particular attention. Weak governance and bad loans can undermine confidence throughout the economy. Reform will require strongersupervision, greater accountability and a credibleapproach to dealing with distressed institutions. Protecting depositors and restoring confidence in the financial system should be central to that effort.

Employment is perhaps the most important economic issue of all.

Bangladesh has a large young population entering the labour market every year. Creating jobs atthe necessary scale will require the economy to move beyond dependence on a relatively narrowrange of export industries.

The garment sector will remain vital, but Bangladesh needs to develop pharmaceuticals, electronics, information technology, agro-processing, engineering, shipbuilding, logistics and other higher-value industries. Export diversification should go handin hand with investment in technical education and vocational training.

There is also a broader question of productivity.

Bangladesh’s future growth cannot depend indefinitelyon low-cost labour alone. The next phase will require greater use of technology, better management, stronger research capacity and a workforce equipped for higher-value production.

Government revenue is another structural challenge. A country cannot build high-quality schools, hospitals, transport networks and social protection systems without a sustainable revenue base. Improving tax administration and widening the tax baseshould therefore be treated as part of economic development rather than simply a fiscal exercise.

Energy security will also remain crucial. Reliable and reasonably priced energy is essential for industry, agriculture and households. A more diversified energy strategy, alongside greater attention to efficiency and renewable sources, could reduce vulnerabilities over time.

None of these reforms will produce instant results. Butthat is precisely why they require a long-term approach.

The objective should be to build an economy that creates jobs, attracts investment, supports entrepreneurship and gives Bangladesh greater resilience when global conditions become difficult.

Economic strength is also closely connected to national independence. A country with a productive economy, healthy financial institutions and diversified trade relationships has greater freedom to makeits own choices at home and abroad.

Reforming the institutions of the state

Economic development cannot be separated from institutional quality.

Investors need predictable rules. Businesses need access to finance. Citizens need effectivepublic services. Courts need credibility. Regulatorsneed competence and independence.

Bangladesh does not necessarily need a larger state. It needs a more capable one.

That means strengthening institutions rather thansimply changing the people who occupy them.

The same principle applies to public administration.

If government becomes more predictable, transparentand effective, the benefits will extend beyond the economy. Better institutions can also reduce political tensions by making citizens less dependenton political connections to obtain basic services or resolve disputes.

For Tarique Rahman’s government, institutionalreform may therefore prove more consequential in the long run than any individual political initiative.

A changing foreign policy

Foreign policy is another area where Bangladesh appears to be entering a period of adjustment.

The government has signalled a desire to diversify its international relationships and give greaterweight to national interests. Engagement withChina has become particularly significant, with cooperation covering areas such as trade, investment, infrastructure and connectivity.

This has inevitably generated discussion aboutwhether Bangladesh is moving closer to Beijing and seeking greater distance from New Delhi.

A more useful way to understand the change maybe through the concept of strategic autonomy.

Bangladesh does not have to choose between China and India, or between East and West.

China can be an important economic and infrastructure partner, while the United States and Europe remain important to Bangladesh’s export economy, investment and access to technology. Japan and South Koreacan contribute to industrial development, while the Gulf remains important for energy, investment, employment and remittances. Southeast Asia offers further opportunities for trade and connectivity.

The objective should be to give Bangladesh more choices, rather than simply replacing one formof dependence with another.

India: a relationship being reassessed

India will remain central to Bangladesh’s foreign policy because geography makes the relationship unavoidable.

The two countries share a long border and interconnected interests involving rivers, water, trade, energy, transport, security and regional connectivity.

At the same time, Dhaka is seeking a differentbalance in the relationship.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir has spoken of the need to reset Bangladesh’s relationship with India and has stressed that the relationshipshould be approached from the perspective of Bangladesh’s national interests. He has also indicated that Bangladesh wants a constructive relationship with its neighbour.

That distinction matters.

Bangladesh does not need to be anti-India topursue greater strategic autonomy.

Nor does strengthening relations with China require weakening relations with India.

A mature relationship should allow Bangladeshto cooperate with India where interests converge and negotiate firmly where they do not.

Water sharing, border management, trade, energy and connectivity will continue to require sustained bilateral engagement. The challenge is to make that engagement balanced, predictable and mutually beneficial.

China and the wider world

The expansion of Bangladesh-China relationsshould therefore be viewed as part of a broaderdiversification of foreign policy.

China offers Bangladesh access to capital, infrastructure, manufacturing capacity and technology. These can be valuable as Bangladesh seeks to upgrade its industrial base.

But diversification should not become anotherform of dependence.

Every major project should be assessed according to its economic value, financing terms, employment potential, technology transfer and long-term contribution to Bangladesh’s productive capacity.

The same principle should apply to every international partner.

Bangladesh’s relationship with the West remains economically important. Japan and South Korea offer opportunities in advanced manufacturingand technology. The Gulf states remain critical to the country’s labour market and remittance economy. Southeast Asia can provide new marketsand investment.

Bangladesh’s diplomatic strength will increasinglydepend on its ability to engage all of these partners at the same time.

The Bay of Bengal opportunity

Geography can become one of Bangladesh’sgreatest economic advantages.

The country sits between South Asia and Southeast Asia and has direct access to the Bay of Bengal. With the right investment, its ports, logistics networks and transport infrastructure could support a much larger role in regional trade.

Bangladesh should therefore look beyond bilateralrelationships and consider the wider regional economy.

Greater engagement with ASEAN countries, strongerBIMSTEC cooperation and improved connectivity withNepal, Bhutan and India’s northeastern states could create new opportunities for trade and investment.

The Bay of Bengal should be viewed not merely as a security space, but as an economic opportunity.

Bangladesh’s location could allow it to become a bridge between South and Southeast Asia, provided it develops the infrastructure, regulatoryenvironment and industrial capacity necessary to take advantage of that position.

Building common ground

The political challenge is to create enough consensus around these long-term objectives.

The government and opposition have differentpolitical histories, constituencies and policy positions. Other political parties and movements have their own perspectives.

There is no need for these differences to disappear.

A functioning democracy does not require political parties to agree on everything. It requires them to accept that the country must continue to functiondespite disagreement.

There may therefore be value in identifying a limited number of national priorities around whichcooperation is possible: economic recovery, education, employment, institutional reform, energy security, public health, infrastructure and national security.

Such cooperation should not be confused with a political alliance or ideological agreement. It issimply recognition that some problems requirea national response.

If Bangladesh can develop a political environment in which competition does not prevent cooperation, thecountry could strengthen its democratic institutionswhile creating a more stable foundationfor development.

What kind of Bangladesh comes next?

The ultimate test for Tarique Rahman’s government will therefore be broader than whether it succeedsin any single policy area.

Can it create an environment in which private investment returns?

Can it restore confidence in the banking system?

Can it provide meaningful employment foryoung people?

Can it strengthen public institutions and the rule of law?

Can it maintain political competition without allowing confrontation to paralyse the state?

Can it manage relations with India while expanding economic engagement with China and other partners?

And can Bangladesh become sufficiently economicallystrong that its foreign policy reflects genuine strategic choice rather than dependence?

These questions are interconnected.

A country with strong institutions and a diversified economy has greater freedom abroad. A countrywith a skilled population and competitive industries has more leverage in international negotiations. A politically stable democracy can build longer-term relationships with international partners.

In that sense, foreign policy begins at home.

A chance to define the next chapter

The political histories of Ziaur Rahman and Khaleda Zia inevitably form part of the context in which Tarique Rahman governs. But his opportunity is to define a chapter that belongs to his own generation.

Bangladesh today needs neither permanent politicalconfrontation nor dependence on any external power. It needs institutions that work, an economy thatcreates opportunity, politics that allows disagreementwithout paralysis, and a foreign policy that gives the country room to pursue its own interests.

The emerging engagement with China and the reassessment of relations with India may be partof that process. But they should be understood as components of a much larger national project.

The broader test of a “Bangladesh First” approach should not be how distant Dhaka becomes fromone country or how close it becomes to another. It should be whether Bangladesh becomes stronger, more prosperous, more institutionally capableand more confident in making its own decisions.

That is the larger challenge before Tarique Rahman.

It is also a challenge that extends beyond onegovernment or one political party. The next chapter of Bangladesh will be shaped by whether its political forces can compete vigorously while still findingcommon ground on the foundations ofnational development.

The country has an opportunity to turn political changeinto something more enduring: stronger institutions, a more resilient economy, greater social confidence and aforeign policy based on choice rather than dependency.

Advocate Shafiqul Haque Former Mayor of Tower Hamlets | Retired Solicitor, Supreme Court of England | Researcher, Writer & Author